1914: Delusion Or Design?

My apologies to Dr. John rohl for the usage of his title for this thread. However this one is for Jeni, Axel, and Horrido, who would like to shift the blame for WW1 from Germany to everyone that was affected by it.
Why do I think that Germany is reponsible? In brief I will try to point this out.
First of all the German diplomacy of 1870 to 1914 was one of sentimental politics, not Realpolitik: Lichnowsky wrote "instead of a clear-cut program taking power relations as well as the interests and feelings of our neighbors and fellow men into account, and calculating the effect produced on them by our attitudes, we (Germany) have indulged in trials of strength and successes that flattered our vanity, trying to intimidate and impress the our neighbors by threats, occasional digs in the ribs, and empty bragging. THIS POLICY CREATED AN ATMOSHPERE OF UNEASINESS WHICH WE OFTEN TOOK TO BE HOSTILITY, AND SO WE DEVELOPED OUR 'COALITION NIGHTMARE' (Central Powers). This is proven by a statement that an Austrian colleague of his, who had been in Paris for a long time had made..." Whenever the French begin to forget about revanche, you always remind them of it with a jack-boot." The forementioned remark was made in regards to Germany's enigmatic Morocco Policy which was in a nutshell (it had given rise to the suspicion that Germany didn't know what she wanted, or that it was their object to keep Europe on the qui vive, and, when the opportunity offered, to humiliate France).
On December 11th, 1899 Bernhard von Bulow made his 'Hammer or Anvil' speech before the Reichstag which was to set the general tone for the attitudes of arrogance that Germans were beginning to hold more dear. Continued in part 2.
VBR,
Jim

The excerpts from the speech which illustrate best the arrogant sentiment are as follows..."We don't want to step on the toes of any foreign power, but at the same time we don't want our own feet trampled by any foreign power and we DON'T INTEND to be shoved aside by any foreign power, not in political nor in economic terms. It is time, high time, that we make it clear in our own minds what stance we have to take and how we need to prepare ourselves in the face of the processes taking place around us which carry the seeds within them for the restructuring of power relationships for the unforeseeable future." He concluded with "In the coming century the German people will be a hammer or an anvil."
Next we move onto the Kaiser's arrogance which created the 1st Moroccan Crisis in 1905. The kaiser was visiting and trying to obtain free trade for Germany and equal rights with other countries. In conversing with Count Cherisey, Kaiser Wilhelm II said that he wished to treat directly with the Sultan, the free ruler of an independent country, as an equal; that he himself would be able to make his just claims valid, and that he EXPECTED that these claims would also be recognized by France. Count Cherisey became pale. He was about to respond, but was curtly dismissed. Morocco at this time was being wooed by the French . After Germany had repulsed M. Delcasse's (France's Ambassador) efforts to arrive at an understanding about Morocco, and prior to that declaring that Germany had no political interests there which conformed to Bismarckian policy, they found the ruler to be a second Kruger (Boer War). The Germans assured him, like the Boers, of the protection of the mighty German Empire.
Now we have the Schliefen Plan come into being in the face of the prevailing difficulties. Drafted in 1905 for a war against France and England if the need arose. On Feb 9th, 1909 the French and the Germans sign agreement over Morocco recognizing French political and German economical rights there. In Germany Gen. Friedrich von Bernhardi wrote his text 'The Next War'.
Then again in 1911 the Germans sent the gunboat Panther to the port of Agadir as a display of force and protest against French influence in Morocco and the Congo. So we start to see how the rest of the world will have the knee-jerk reactions to the German bellicosity and belligerence. But let us move to the events of 1914? First we must look at the German decision to fight being made a year and a half earlier at the conference held on Dec 8th, 1912. The German 'war council' was held and it was decided that Germany should go to war before the Russians could finish the modernization of their army. They felt that a preventive war, that they could win, would be good for the standing of Germany in the eyes of the world. The Navy wasn't fully prepared at the time to go to war, so it was that Tirpitz demanded a postponement of one and a half years. He wanted the Kiel Canal and the U-Boat harbour at Heligoland to be finished. So that brings us to 1914. One of Bethmann Hollweg's chief preoccupations in the July crisis was to make Russia appear as the aggressor so as to persuade the German nation that it must defend itself. 'The mood is brilliant' the head of the Kaiser's Navy Cabinet could write on August 1st 1914. 'The government has succeeded very well in making us appear as the attacked.' General von Moltke in late May or early June of 1914 applied 'Army' pressure to the Kaiser to make a preventive war. Gottlieb von Jagow, the German Foreign Secretary recalled that on a joourney from Potsdam to Berlin, " Moltke described to me his opinion of our military situation. The prospects of the future oppressed him heavily. In two to three years Russia would have completed her armaments. The military superiority of our enemies would be so great that he did not know how he could overcome them. Today we would still be a match for them. In his opinion there was no alternative to making a preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while we still had a chance at victory. The Chief of the General Staff therefore proposed that I should conduct a policy with the aim of provoking a war in the near future."
To be continued...
VBR,
Jim

Lastly we have the events of the July crisis, after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. As was related to the American Ambassador to Turkey Henry Morgenthau by the German Ambassador Wangenheim in late 1914. "The Kaiser, he told me, had summoned him to Berlin for an imperial conference. This meeting took place at Potsdam on July 5th. The Kaiser presided and nearly all the important ambassadors attended. Wangenheim himself was summoned to give assurance about Turkey and enlighten his associates generally on the situation in Constantinople, which was regarded as almost the pivotal point in the impending war. In telling me who attended this conference Wangenheim used no names, though he specifically stated that among them were---the facts are so important that I quote his exact words in the German which he used---"die Haupter des Generalstabs und der Marine"--- (the heads of the general staff and of the navy) by which I assumed that he meant von Moltke and Von Tirpitz. The great bankers, railroad directors, and the captains of German industry, all of whom were necessary to German war preparations as the army itself also, attended.
Wangenheim now told me that the Kaiser solemnly put the question to each man in turn: "Are you ready for war?" All replied yes except the financiers.
They said they must have two weeks to sell their foreign securities and make loans. At that time few people looked on the Sarajevo tragedy as something that would inevitably lead to war. This conference, Wangenheim told me, took all precautions that no such suspicion should be aroused. It decided to give the bankers time to readjust their finances for the coming war, then several members went quietly back to their work or started on vacations. The Kaiser went to Norway on his yacht, Von Bethmann-Hollweg left for a rest, and Wangenheim returned to Constantinople."
Morgenthau went on to say that " this conference took place on July 5th and the Serbian ultimatum was sent on July 22nd." All the great stock exchanges of the world show that the German bankers had profitably used this interval. Their records disclose that stocks were being sold in large quantities and that prices declined rapidly. At that time the markets were still somewhat puzzled at this movement but Wangenheim's explanation clears up any doubts that still remain. Germany was changing her securities to cash for war purposes. If anyone wishes to verify Wangenheim, I would suggest that he examine the quotations for the New York stock market for these two historic weeks. He will find astonishing slumps in prices, especially on the stocks that had an international market."
The Kaiser in his memoirs refutes that this conference ever took place of course. But Morgenthau's account is corroborrated from a most unlikely source, Prince Lichnowsky the German Ambassador to London From 1912 to 1914, who stated that " at the decisive conference at Potsdam on the 5th of July, the Vienna inquiry received the unqualified assent of all the leading people, and with a rider that no harm would be done if a war with Russia should result." So we have Von Moltke pressing for war, a secret meeting of the higherarchy in Potsdam to make preparations to go to war. AND NOW the Piece de resistance... Lichnowsky states "Needless to say that a mere hint from Berlin would have decided Count Berchtold to content himself with diplomatic success, and accept Serbia's 95% accession to the Austrian ultimatum. The hint was not given; on the contrary they urged in the direction of war." Now you might ask why should Germany take the whoe blame, BECAUSE THEY WERE THE STONGEST OF ALL THE PARTNERS IN THE TRIPLE ALLIANCE, THEREFORE COULD HAVE EASILY TOLD THE OTHER TO BACK DOWN, AND BEEN OBEYED. Thes are just a few of the reasons that show why Germany premeditated the 1st World War. All this crap about everyone being eager to go to war...these were just the knee jerk reactions that I alluded to earlier.
VBR,
Jim

ACE: When the Prussians beat the French in 1870, and formed the German Empire, they terminated the perpetual warfare between the nations of Europe, all monarchies, to give Europe a peace that lasted 34 years. Four years and 20 million people later, the chief benefit of WWI was that most of the monarchies disappeared, giving rise to dictatorships (Russia, Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, Roumania) that would produce another 20 million corpses, provided by the common man, who believed socialism would restore their liberties. Once we realize that governments are not by truly great men, we have the real cause of war. EOM/8/24/99

ACE: When the Prussians beat the French in 1870, and formed the German Empire, they terminated the perpetual warfare between the nations of Europe, all monarchies, to give Europe a peace that lasted 34 years. Four years and 20 million people later, the chief benefit of WWI was that most of the monarchies disappeared, giving rise to dictatorships (Russia, Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, Roumania) that would produce another 20 million corpses, provided by the common man, who believed socialism would restore their liberties. Once we realize that governments are not by truly great men, we have the real cause of war. EOM/8/24/99

ACE: When the Prussians beat the French in 1870, and formed the German Empire, they terminated the perpetual warfare between the nations of Europe, all monarchies, to give Europe a peace that lasted 34 years. Four years and 20 million people later, the chief benefit of WWI was that most of the monarchies disappeared, giving rise to dictatorships (Russia, Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, Roumania) that would produce another 20 million corpses, provided by the common man, who believed socialism would restore their liberties. Once we realize that governments are not by truly great men, we have the real cause of war. EOM/8/24/99

I don't think too many people would disagree with you Jim that Germany was responsible for WWI. However I don't know how many would argue that Germany was SOLELY responsible. Every European power was in part responsible.

Austria especially plunged ahead, confident of Germany's support. It was Winston Churchill who said that 'Germany... is tardily trying to restrain her idiot ally.' It was the Triple Alliance and Triple Entente rivalries which turned the small Balkans conflict into a World War, not just German aggression.

And all the powers were responsible for the tensions arising from the land grab in Africa and elsewhere. Any one could have lessened the tensions by negotiating more and being less jingoistic through their media.

I did an assignment on this in High School and it was pretty clear to me that Germany certainly played its part, through all the things you mentioned, but was certainly not the only culprit.

Regards

Simon

[stephen]

Jim, this has been tried before. To the traditional, reasoning brain, the scenario is as follows: Germany's faulty backing of Austria-Hungary and her punitive measures against Serbia caused Germany to place itself in a situation where a two front war was likely. Rather than attempt an in-house solution with Austria, Germany chose a first strike against Belgium, a neutral nation. And obviously, Russia in particular did nothing to help smooth things over. That's what a rational, realistic mind comes up with.

But we live in a day where no one ever does anything wrong, and they certainly cannot be held responsible for anything they do, individually or collectively. The answer to any accusation is ALWAYS the same - there is never the slightest variation... "yes, but so-and-so made them do it. It wasn't their fault." That's not to deny the part that other nations played; its simply to observe the fact that someone eventually pulled the trigger... and that someone was Germany. A simple truth, but one that most modern observers will NEVER admit.

I though Austro Hungary pulled the trigger when they invaded Serbia on 29 July.

Regards,

MDD

Bill H.,
Germany's defeat of the French in 1870 did not bring about 30 years of peace, rather it brought about a regieme of deceptive politics, fostering an attitude of fear in her neighbors. It was under Bismarck that anti-semitism in Germany first reared it's ugly head! Plus the Germans, through their land grabbing colonial expansionism created more than one international incident. Moroccan incidents 1&2, plus their diplomacy during Balkan wars 1&2 helped to foster these feelings of anxiety amongst her neighbors. The pan-German movement in Germany itself was pushing for the Government to be more aggressive. The government was being run by the German Military High Command because the Kaiser was too DAMNED WEAK to run it with his diplomats. As I have shown (my sole point) was that Germany started it. People say that Austri-Hungary should bear an equal share...not true. At Germany's behest she could've found a peaceful in-house solution, but why? IT GAVE GERMANY THE PERFECT PRETEXT TO WAGE WAR, YET APPEAR INNOCENT. To draw a clearer illustration Germany is like the major stock-holder in the 'Central Powers' "Corporation". Without her assent, neither Austro-Hungary, or Turkey could have effectively waged a conflict themselves with any measure of success. Russia, tried to mediate with Serbia during the month of July and urged them to accept 95% of the Austrian Ultimatum. Germany URGED Count Berchtold to push for war! Germany declared war on Russia BEFORE the Czar had ordered any mobilization. They rejected all proposals for mediation, although Russia was making preliminary moves (NOT A GENERAL MOBILIZATION); the Germans declared war before Austria, although they had no obligations as long as Russia did not attack Austria; They showed an excess of zeal in a matter which concerned them only indirectly.
All,
I tend to believe the diaries and correspondence of the diplomats and persons who were closer to the actual events, than to believe the CRAP that is taught today. It's kind of like saying to a gang-member..."It's okay that you made my neighborhood a terrible drug-infested, armed camp in which to live, I understand, we are all to blame because we feared you, and cried out against you when you murdered our sons and daughters in your drive-by's. But it's not your fault the gun went off, I mean Gee....it must've been faulty workmanship on the part of the manufacturer!
People need to get real!
VBR,
Jim